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Why in Kalkriese the laws of probability overridden?

starting point of the following considerations are the coin hoards:
first Haltern 4056
second Kalkriese-Lutter third pitcher
Kalkriese - Bar collection, Good Barenaue.

According to Frank Berger ( The money of the Roman soldiers, in: Kalkriese - Romans in the Osnabrück region, Brampton 1993) is a sole dominance of the post-Christian coins minted in the coin hoards holders on where primarily stopped the legions XVII, XVIII and XIX (Varus legions). Contrast, the proportion of pre-Christian coins in the two Kalkrieser hoards is greater. This is very surprising given the hypothesis that the three legions of Varus in 9 AD Kalkriese met their end, and under the premise that the two day-care centers are there in connection with the Varus Battle.

any case had initially Theodor Mommsen (derWissenschaften The location of the Varus battle, Proceedings of the Royal Academy of Berlin, Berlin, 1885 ) his assumption of the Varus battle in Kalkriese the coins from Auer Bare land supported, and the visiting today because of the continued support of the coins found their Captain Clunn Varus Battle Kalkriese hypothesis just that.

had But Lodtmann 1753 discovered the first exclusively from Bare Auer land-derived 127 silver and gold coins, the Legion identifiers II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XIII, XV, XVI, XVII and XX , that is statistically 50% (14) of the 28 Roman legions, there was the birth of Christ.

Of the three legions of Varus but there is only one back ( 33%). This seems very unlikely, if only in the local battle Varus legions involved were.

Would Asprenas 9 AD with the two Legions V and XXI in parallel to get in varus Kalkriese in trouble, then we would back up the default probability 50% (1 / 2).

critics of Kalkriese hypothesis argue that it is there at the battle of might have traded on the Pontes Longi . How about because of the probability theory? Caecina was (15 AD) with the legions I, V, XX, XXI way, here is the correlation that is expected back at the 50% (2 / 4).

What about the Angrivarierwall conjecture in Kalkriese? Germanicus was 16 in AD, with the eight legions I, II, V, XIII, XIV, XVI, XX, XXI used so that the significance of 63% (5 / 8) increases.

Thus, the probability for the Angrivarierwall in Kalkriese So far the highest and lowest for the Varus Battle. That should give pause, because in addition by militaria finds the Legion I witnessed is what the probability of Germanicus on Angrivarierwall on 75% (6 / 8) lifts as well as for the Caecina Pontes Longi on 75% (3 / 4), but because of the lower number is not so significant .

The sober World of statistics of chance speaks most strongly against the Varus battle in Kalkriese . Corroborates the assumption that the cartel Kalkriese its monopoly even in the classification and evaluation of the empirical findings at the excavation site exploited. It is high time that the Ombudsman of the DFG appointed a neutral expert who takes all previous finds again inspected. The most suitable would be a numismatist from France because there is to be expected, the greatest expertise regarding the coinage in Gaul (Lyon / Lugdunum).

Sincerely,
Univ.-Prof. Dr. Siegfried G. Schoppe